Effects of Global Warming on the Average Wind Speed Field in Central Japan

Abstract

The authors compare distributions of annual mean wind speed during 1961–2099 at altitudes of 30–100 m above ground level (AGL) in Central Japan based on several available databases. Wind speed fields are statistically interpolated in time and space using three existing databases: the 333-m resolution local wind field database in Central Japan during 2001–2002 (GWA333), the global reanalysis ECMWF during 1957–2001 (ERA40), and the global multi-model database during 2000–2100 (CMIP3) under the SRES A1B scenario. The interpolated data is validated by available surface observation conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and we confirm that the interpolation shows good agreement with the observations. Results show that domain-averaged wind speeds in 2099 evaluated by the statistical interpolation exceed the wind speeds in 2001 evaluated by GWA333 by about 0.48 m/s at 30 m AGL. Over the coastal and mountainous regions, the wind speed at 30 m AGL increase from 8 m/s in 2001 to 10 m/s in 2099. The gradual increase of the surface wind speed might be completed until the early 21st century. It is concluded that if global warming advances according to the IPCC A1B scenario, the surface wind speed, namely, the wind energy resource in Central Japan is expected to increase gradually during the early 21st century.