Potential of Decentralized Generation in Thailand and Its Contribution

Abstract

91% of electricity generated in Thailand is mainly by Centralized Generation (CG) [1]. Moreover the recent power development plan [2] relies mostly on Centralized Generation (CG) including centralized fossil fuel plants, large hydropower and nuclear power plants. While the existing potential of Decentralized Generation (CG) such as on site generation CHP plants and renewable energy resources, until now have not been fully utilized. In order to present the significant benefits that DG can contribute, if they are fully utilized, this paper determines primary energy saving, economical and environmental values that can be benefited from DG with the most appropriate generation shares based on its potential. In this study, WADE economic model has been applied for the analysis to calculate the generation share in the next 20 years based on 4.95% of electricity demand growth. With the penetration of DG in the system regarding its potential and existing power development plan of Thailand, DG share will increase from 2% (1,759 MW) to 17% (12,282 MW) by the year 2026. This decentralized system results in significant savings on primary energy 84.3 TWh/year (11%), emissions reduction (NOx, SO2, PM10, CO2) 40 Mton (17%), capital cost savings US$ 1.42 billion (3%), and mostly in a reduction of required additional capacity of around 4,955 MW (6%).