An Analysis of Future Energy Consumption with A Relational Model Based on Economic, Social and Environmental Sector under Thailand’s Sustainable Development Policy by Adapting a GM-ARIMAX with HP Filter

Abstract

Thailand has stepped further to reduce energy consumption by bringing out a five-year plan policy into actions. The limitations in economic development in Thailand become tighter than in years before. In order to acquire a future figure of energy consumption in the upcoming year of Thailand, this study seeks to propose a new GM-ARIMAX model by incorporating the HP filter to forecast the final consumption of energy. With the new approach proposed, it reflects the effectiveness of the model since it provides a more reliable result and an accurate outcome compared to those traditional methods. With the use of the above model, the study incorporates various economic circumstances to predict the energy consumption and possible changes in its structure in Thailand between 2018 to 2021 in order to further articulate any possibility of Thailand to have its minimization goal achieved. However, the study shows that the problem of energy conservation and emission minimization will remain unchanged for the next few years