Participatory Scenario Development for Low-Carbon City Strategies: A case study of Krabi Municipality, Thailand
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Abstract
Under the global-social dynamics and urbanization over the past decade, the transition towards the sustainable city has received considerable attention worldwide as appeared in the preamble of the New Urban Agenda (NUA). In this context, a number of studies revealed that there is a growing recognition of cities to transform towards Low-Carbon City (LCC), which requires strategic long-term planning tools for making cities inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable from climate and disaster risks. This paper applied participatory foresight methodology to: (1) explore possible future scenarios and strategy options for LCC planning contexts in 2050; (2) initiate co-creation learning module with strategy building blocks encouraging the city’s capability on low-carbon sustainable transition management. By using Krabi Municipality as a case study, 30 participants were selected through the purposive sampling including local administrators, key actors and representatives from government institutions, civil society, higher education institutions and private entrepreneurship networks. Data were collected through group semi-structured interviews, and participatory scenario workshops. Content analysis was used to analyze the data. Key results were found as; (1) Four plausible future scenarios covering 30-year time horizon, based on the combination of two axes of key driving forces. Consequently, a set of low-carbon strategy options were derived out of the scenarios; (2) Strategy building blocks containing six essential elements that could encourage effective LCC planning and implementations. The results provided an idea-driven approach that fulfills local government’s gap of knowledge regarding the revision of strategies and management plans required for transitioning towards an LCC. This approach can be flexibly adapted to the specific needs of individual cities/local government and their inhabitants.
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