From Suspicion to Hostility: Thai-Chinese Relations during the Cold War through the Lens of Structural Realism (1949-1969)

Abstract

This article explores the evolution of Thai-Chinese relations during the Cold War (1949-1969) through the theoretical lens of structural realism by employing the analytical focus from internal variables to the external structure of the international system and proving a systemic explanation for the change of state behavior between Thailand and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from mutual suspicion to overt confrontation. The study examines and analyzes three shifting periods in the trajectory of Thai-Chinese relations. The first period of mutual suspicion and strategic rebalancing (1949-1954), characterized by Thailand’s alignment with the United States and its concerns over the spread of communism through overseas Chinese communities to against China’s ideological influence. The second period of diplomatic overtures and temporary détente (1955–1959), meeting between Thailand and China delegation plays an important role for backchannel diplomacy. The third period of overt hostility (1960-1969), regional conflicts such as Laos crisis amplified ideological divides to Thailand and China’s diplomatic rapprochement struggle. These three periods between 1949 and 1969 reflect the adjustment of policies and strategies in both countries in response to the pressures from the structure of the constantly changing international system. While internal ideological and political factors influenced state behavior to some extent, the article argues that the major factor shaping the policies of both countries was the severely polarized and anarchic structure of the international order, defined by bipolarity and the asymmetrical distribution of power. In addition, this study identifies the underlying structural conditions that accelerated the downturn in Thai-Chinese relations and examines their broader implications for how small states position themselves within global power structures.