Dynamic Evolution of Tourism Economic Resilience in the Pearl River Delta, China
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Abstract
With the rapid growth of global tourism, tourism economic resilience has become a key metric for assessing a region's ability to withstand external shocks and sustain development. Resilience transitions reflect shifts in this capacity over time. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of tourism economic resilience in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), focusing on (1) overall temporal trends, (2) spatial patterns and aggregation, and (3) spatial dynamic transitions. A comprehensive evaluation system, with indicators weighted using the entropy weight method to reduce subjectivity, was developed to measure tourism economic resilience. The study employed kernel density estimation and spatial Markov chain models to analyze temporal changes, spatial distributions, and dynamic transitions from 2003 to 2022. The analysis revealed four development phases, showing overall improvement but persistent polarization in low-resilience areas. Spatially, resilience followed a "strong north, prominent central-southeast, weak periphery" pattern, with limited spillover from core cities. Markov results showed high-resilience cities remained stable, while most transitions occurred among lower-resilience cities, suggesting limitations in traditional spillover assumptions.
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