Forecasting Export Quantity of Green Soybean of Lanna Agro Industry Co., Ltd. to Japan

Abstract

The purposes of this research were to (1) study the situation of production, marketing, and trade of green soybean, and (2) forecast the export quantity of green soybean by Lanna Agro Industry Co., Ltd. to Japan. The quantitative research was considered using the secondary data in terms of monthly time series from January 2013 to December 2020, which included 96 months in total. The data analysis applied the econometric methods, including stationary tests and the Box-Jenkins forecasting approach. The results of the research showed that (1) Japan had imported more than 75,000 tons of green soybean per year. In this regard, Lanna Agro Industry Co., Ltd. exported 11,076 tons or 14.76 percent of those green soybean to Japan in 2020. This amount was accounted for 70 percent of the total export by this company. For the other exporting green soybean markets of the company, there were exported to America, Europe, and Middle East countries, and (2) the appropriate forecasting model was SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)₁₂. The results obtained from the forecast of the green soybean exported by Lanna Agro Industry Co., Ltd. to Japan showed that, in 2021, it was decreased by 4.44% compared to the year 2020. This reduction was caused by the Japanese economy slowed down due to the COVID-19 outbreak, which reduced the expenditure of the consumers and, hence, the reduction of green soybean imported from Lanna Agro Industry Co., Ltd.