A Case Study of Bitcoin Price That has an Impact on Tax Calculations Using The ARIMA Model of Cryptocurrency Investors in Thailand

Abstract

The purposes of this study were to study and analyze the factors that affect the Bitcoin price, to create a suitable Bitcoin market price prediction model in the future and to calculate the withholding tax from Bitcoin trading. The factors that affect the fluctuations of the Bitcoin prices, were consisted of 1.Bitcoin 2.Ethereum 3.Litecoin 4.Ripple 5. Euro in European countries 6. Japanese Yen 7. Chinese yuan currency 8. British Pound 9. NASDAQ Stock Index 10. S & P500 Stock Index 11. DOW JONES stock index 12. Gold 13. Crude oil 14. Natural gas. All the data were selected by correlation analysis in order to find factors that are related to the price of Bitcoin. After selecting the experimental factors, they were used to predict the Bitcoin price With the method of multiple linear regression and arithmetic time series. By using the method of reporting error measuring, RMSE, RAE and MAPE as a comparison. The result of the research shows that the Bitcoin price forecasting with multiple regression methods. The RMSE value is 239.884, the RAE is 94.802 and the MAPE is 2.780 and the ARIMA time series using Box-Jenkins method has the RMSE 2929.213, the RAE is 133.982 and the MAPE is 2.810 Both methods of Bitcoin price forecasting have similar results. The equation obtained with multiple And from the withholding tax calculation of Bitcoin trading, it is found that the profit and the withholding tax were highly variable. Due to the highly volatile in Bitcoin price, causing the profits to be higher or lower than it is supposed to be.