PROACTIVE EQUILIBRIUM IN THAILAND’S FOREIGN POLICY AMID U.S.-CHINA RIVALRY

Abstract

This academic article analyzes Thailand’s foreign policy amid the strategic rivalry between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, a major geopolitical context shaping Southeast Asia in the twenty-first century. The U.S.-China competition is no longer confined to traditional military and security dimensions but has expanded into economic policy, technology, supply chains, infrastructure, energy, cybersecurity, and influence-building through regional and multilateral mechanisms. As a middle power in Southeast Asia, Thailand must carefully conduct its foreign policy to maintain its long-standing security alliance and strategic partnership with the United States while also preserving its close relationship with China as a key economic partner in trade, investment, infrastructure development, and regional connectivity. The article employs key concepts in international relations, including realism, balance of power, liberal institutionalism, hedging, and Thailand’s traditional “bamboo diplomacy,” to explain the characteristics, strengths, and limitations of Thai foreign policy under intensifying great-power competition. The central argument is that Thailand should neither choose sides rigidly nor adopt passive neutrality. Instead, Thailand should transform its traditional bamboo diplomacy into a more proactive strategic equilibrium, or “directional flexibility.” This approach means remaining flexible without abandoning principles, cooperating with all major powers without becoming overly dependent on any single side, and placing national interests at the center of foreign policy decision-making. The article further argues that ASEAN should serve as Thailand’s strategic middle ground for reducing pressure from U.S.-China competition, enhancing diplomatic leverage, and strengthening the legitimacy of Thailand’s regional position. At the same time, Thailand must reinforce its domestic resilience in the areas of economic competitiveness, technological capability, human capital, state capacity, and strategic risk management. Such an approach will enable Thailand to preserve strategic autonomy, increase bargaining power, and play a constructive role in maintaining regional stability and sustainable development amid an increasingly complex international order.