The global financial crisis, government intervention, and Thailand's real estate sector

Abstract

     The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 with its epicenter in the US reverberated around the world. Yet few studies have connected the contagion with the real estate markets. This paper presents the findings of a study which examined how well public-listed real estate companies in Thailand fared during the 2004-2012 period. The first objective was to track their financial performance over the 2004-2012 period, using financial data compiled from their annual reports. The second objective was to document what national policy responses were taken to shield the companies from various shocks by reference mainly to official documents. The final objective was to determine whether the GFC was the most significant shock compared to other shocks during that same study period. For this, panel data regression was applied on selected financial data. The sampled companies were financially challenged before and after the GFC. The GFC years of 2008-2010 were very profitable for the sampled companies, largely due to government intervention. The panel data regression analysis, however; revealed that the GFC affected the sampled companies, but only slightly. The return on average equity (ROAE) was affected in 2009, but not the net profit margin and return on average asset (ROAA). The outcome would have been different if the government had not intervened at all. Conversely; if the government had intervened for a longer duration, the real estate sector might not have been affected at all by the GFC. It is misleading to make the sweeping statement that all sectors were equally affected by the contagion. The study also affirmed the point that any narrative regarding the impact of external shocks on the national real estate sector would not be complete if the role of the government in mitigating them is ignored.