The Forecasting of Oil Crops by Decomposition Method and Holt-Winters Method

Authors

  • Tusanee Chungtes Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand.
  • Apinya Hirunwong Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, Kasetsart University, Bangkok 10900, Thailand.

Keywords:

price forcasting, oil crops, Decomposition Method, Holt-Winters Method

Abstract

The main objective of this research was to investigate the best forecasting model for mixed soybean, shelled groundnut and fresh fruit branch using decomposition and Holt-Winters method. Monthly farm gate price in year 1980 - 1995 were examined. The study reveals that all three oil crop prices are influenced by trend and seasonal variation at the .05 level of significance using the minimum sum of squares error of oil crops as a criteria. It was found that the decomposition method gives the best multiplicative model for mixed soybean, and the Holt-Winters method gives the best additive model for shelled groundnut and fresh fruit branch.

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Published

01-07-1996

How to Cite

Chungtes, T., & Hirunwong, A. (1996). The Forecasting of Oil Crops by Decomposition Method and Holt-Winters Method. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 17(2), 160–169. Retrieved from https://so04.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/kjss/article/view/243632

Issue

Vol. 17 No. 2 (1996): July - December

Section

Research articles

License

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/