An Analysis of the Supply and Demand Model of Thai Broilers.

Abstract

The objectives of this study were 1) to construct the supply of and demand for Thai broilers 2) to investigate the effect of changed in policy variables (i.e., the real price of compound broiler feed and the real per capita of Japanese national income), would affect supply of and demand for Thai broilers and different levels of Thai broiler prices. Time-series data of 1976-1993 were employed in the analysis. On the supply model of Thai broilers, the estimation employed the ordinary-least squares. The components for demand and price relationship models were estimated by using two-stage least squares. The results of the study showed that the goodness of fit test was acceptable and satisfactory. The model was used to examine the effect of changes in policy variables in two cases. Case I, the real price of Thai compound feed decreased by 2 percent per year, the quantity of Thai broiler production, the quantity of Thai broiler domestic consumption, and the export quantity of Thai frozen chicken to Japan would increase by 5.19, 0.96 and 5.78 percent per year respectively. In case of Thai broiler price received by the farmer, the retail price of Thai broiler and the export price of Thai frozen chicken to Japan would decrease by 0.12, 0.72 and 1.81 percents per year respectively. Case II, the real per capita of Japanese national income increased by 3 percent per year, the quantity of Thai broiler production, the quantity of Thai frozen chicken export to Japan, the Thai broiler price received by the farmer, the retail price of Thai broiler and the export price of Thai frozen chicken to Japan would increase by 0.09, 87.32, 0.18, 1.05 and 2.62 percents per year respectively. In case of Thai broiler domestic consumption would decrease by 1.24 percent per year.