Central Asia in a changing world: Understanding the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the geopolitical realignments and economic repercussions in Central Asia that have resulted from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Specifically, it explores the challenges that have emerged in the established relations between Russia and the Central Asian states, with a focus on the concerns over dependence on Russia. The imposition of Western sanctions on Russia has had a complex impact on trade relations and economic conditions in the region, prompting the Central Asian states to reconsider their ties with other global actors. The study employs a qualitative methodology to examine the political, economic, and security aspects of these relationships, drawing on empirical data, official statements, and scholarly literature. The findings highlight notable shifts in the geopolitical self-perception and diplomatic postures of the Central Asian countries, indicating a growing sense of independence and agency in international affairs. However, the declining influence of Russia exposes potential risks and opens the door for other global powers to step in. Consequently, the paper argues for Central Asian leadership to develop a comprehensive and strategic understanding of these dynamics to balance immediate benefits with long-term regional stability and prosperity.