Article Title: Strategic Foresight for Transnational Call Centre Scammer Threats in Burma-Thai Border: Lessons, Trends, and Possible Actions for Thailand

Abstract

     This academic study originates from the rapid proliferation of call-center scammer crime, which has caused severe economic and social harm and now operates from areas with limited state reach, notably in Karen State, Myanmar. The objectives are to 1) analyze the root-cause factors of the problem, 2) assess threat trends, and 3) propose strategic, whole-of-government policies that address both uncertainty and impact. The methodology applies a Strategic Foresight framework following the textbook of Scenario-Based Strategic Planning: Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World, drawing exclusively on public sources—field visits, reports from security agencies, academic works, and policy documents—to analyze relevant uncertainties and impacts. An Impact/Uncertainty Grid is used to identify Critical Uncertainties and prioritize response measures.
     Findings indicate that the paramount critical factor is the scammers’ technological adaptability, leveraging resources such as Starlink satellite internet, power generators, and foreign funding to circumvent Thai pressure measures. Additional factors—Thailand’s geographic advantages, cross-border financial channels, and sovereignty constraints—also shape the groups’ operations but are of secondary urgency and priority. The analysis further finds Thailand currently faces constraints in counter-technologies (e.g., cyber-attacks and electronic warfare) and must rely on international cooperation to control the resources that enable these crimes. Policy recommendations are organized into three clusters: 1) Technology—develop and procure beamforming jammers and establish a proactive Cyber Task Force; 2) Territory, Border, and Law Enforcement—upgrade border operating bases and deploy Smart Border Monitoring; and 3) Diplomatic and International Cooperation— engage SpaceX and the Chinese government to restrict resources supporting illicit networks. The study concludes that technological counter measures deserve the highest priority, together with border-control and diplomatic measures to achieve durable security outcomes for Thailand.