Forecasting Income from Foreign Tourists in Chonburi Province by Using Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

The purposes of the research were: 1) to compare the effectiveness of various forecasting methods for predicting income from foreign tourists in Chonburi Province. and 2) to forecast income from foreign tourists in Chonburi Province. The data used was the monthly income from foreign tourists in Chonburi Province from January 2021 to November 2022. The forecasting methods used in the study consisted of Simple Moving Average Method (SMA), Exponential Smoothing Method (ES), and Exponential Moving Average Method (EMA). The value used to determine performance was the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results showed that 1) the forecasting method using the Exponential Smoothing Method with a damping factor of 0.0001 was the most effective method for forecasting income from foreign tourists in Chonburi Province, as it resulted in a lower Root Mean Square Error compared to other methods. 2) The forecast results also demonstrated that from December 2022 - February 2023, the income from foreign tourists in Chonburi province had continued to increase.