A MORTALIY MODEL AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE THAI ELDERLY
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Abstract
The objective of this study aims at modeling the mortality rate of the Thai elderly by using the Inverse-Makeham model, together with the Coale-Kisker method. The data used in the study are the size of the Thai population at the end of the year and the number of deaths classified by gender and the age of the Thai population from 2003-2016. The Lee-Carter model was also applied to forecast the mortality rate of the Thai elderly for the next 11 years, from 2017 to 2027, and then to adjust the Mortality Table of Thailand. The results revealed that, when the Lee-Carter Model estimating the parameter using the Singular Value Decomposition was applied, the predicted mortality rates during the years 2017 - 2027 for males and females were in the same direction and are likely to decrease over time. In the meantime, the life expectancy of both sexes has been declining until the age of 60, and the life expectancy then began to decline at a slower rate until approaching 0 at age 110. As a consequence, the study used the results of the analysis to adjust the Thai Mortality Table for the years 2017 and 2027 in order to present which changes rapidly will occur in the structure of the Thai population, which is living longer today. The study recommends that the insurance sector should prepare to handle the changes in the Thai society (more elderly people) and higher longevity risks in the Thai society in order to design appropriate life insurance and insurance products. In the meantime, the government should expedite the findings of the measures to support the increasing number of Thai elderly in the near future, as forecasted in this study.
Article Details
บทความที่ปรากฏในวารสารนี้ เป็นความรับผิดชอบของผู้เขียน ซึ่งสมาคมนักวิจัยไม่จำเป็นต้องเห็นด้วยเสมอไป การนำเสนอผลงานวิจัยและบทความในวารสารนี้ไปเผยแพร่สามารถกระทำได้ โดยระบุแหล่งอ้างอิงจาก "วารสารสมาคมนักวิจัย"
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