Building an Energy Model for Predicting the Thai Energy Situation

บทคัดย่อ

     At the present time, world crude oil prices and the world energy situation have been fluctuating continuously with an increasingly upward trend. Hence, this circumstance inevitably forces Thailand to confront the risks of an energy deficiency and energy price instability, as well as economic instability and, finally, the possibility of not being able to meet Thailand's overall energy demand. How will the Thai energy situation change based on present usage? This paper is presented in two parts. The first presents the main idea of Thailand's energy model [the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) project]—namely, the project that formulated and developed the energy and transportation strategies for Thailand, in the fiscal year 2006-2007. Second, the implication of this model is revisited especially for this paper to estimate the impact on constructed scenarios of the current situation based on the world oil price, alternative energy production capacity, and Thailand's energy technology.