Thailand’s Middle Power Diplomatic Strategy in the New Regional Order: A Case Study of the Thailand-China Community with a Shared Future

Abstract

This academic article aims to analyze Thailand’s diplomatic strategy as an influential middle power within the context of the changing regional order in the 21st century, using the case study of Thailand-China relations under the Community with a Shared Future framework. The study employs a qualitative analytical approach through literature review on middle power diplomacy theory, policy document analysis of joint statements between Thailand and China, and examination of Thailand’s diplomatic behavior across various dimensions including development strategy alignment, economic and security cooperation, and multilateral engagement. The analysis reveals that Thailand has pursued a multidimensional diplomatic strategy reflecting key characteristics of middle powers: (1) a hedging strategy demonstrated through active economic engagement with China while maintaining diversified security partnerships; (2) a bridge-builder role between China and Southeast Asia through ASEAN mechanisms; and (3) niche diplomacy in areas where Thailand possesses comparative strengths, including food security and sustainable agriculture, medical tourism, the promotion of Universal Health Coverage, and the exercise of soft power through cultural exchange and tourism at the regional level. However, Thailand faces significant challenges in maintaining strategic autonomy amid intensifying great power competition, particularly pressure to choose sides between China and the United States, concerns about excessive economic dependence on China, and constraints in resources and political credibility. This article recommends that Thailand enhance transparency in large-scale cooperative projects, diversify economic and security risks, develop diplomatic and strategic analytical capabilities, strengthen ASEAN unity, and advance niche diplomacy aligned with national strengths.