THE IMPACT OF CAUSAL FACTORS RELATIONSHIP RELATED TO GOVERNMENT'S SUSTAINABILITY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION IN THAILAND UNDER NATIONAL STRATEGY THAILAND 4.0

Abstract

From past to present, the government of Thailand has been putting great efforts to achieve sustainable development. In order to simultaneously achieve economic, social, and environmental growth, it is necessary for the country to set plans that align with the national agenda. Every year, a plan assessment has been carried out. Former data showed that the national economy had grown tremendously and positively changed along with continuous social growth. However, this showed a negative impact on environmental damage as greenhouse effects increased continuously. Therefore, these three aspects through a relationship analysis was deemed important to the national development and management effectiveness. This research aimed to analyze the influence of the direct and indirect relationships of economic, social, and environmental factors as well as predicted their future effects by applying the path analysis-generalized method of moments (path analysis-GMM model). The model was believed to be the most effective in relationship analysis, and was capable of accurate prediction when compared to the original models. Most importantly, the model caned be applied to different contexts, benefiting the development areas of those contexts. Furthermore, the model was also found to be the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE), suitable for long-term forecasting. However, the study’s results reflected that the three latent variables of economic, social, and environmental factors had direct and indirect effects. In addition, both economic and social factors were found to have a causal relationship. This further adds another evidence in which the path analysis-GMM model was the most suitable in forecasting and contextual application to support the formulation of the national strategy in the future.