Autoregressive Distributed Lag model study of an alternative fuel, Liquefied Natural Gas, used on ships and its effect on the environment
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33175/mtr.2021.249485Keywords:
Alternative fuels, Autoregressive distributed model, Marine environmental engineering, LNG bunkering, Ships, Heavy fuel oil (HFO) Green house controlAbstract
The increase in global trade and manufacturing has caused an increase in ship transportation, from 16 % to about 90 %, of the number of goods transported internationally, and this has caused an increase in the consumption of Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), which is the predominant fuel used in the maritime industry. The use of HFO not only affects the environment, but also affects the maintenance of a ship’s machinery. This work investigates the effect of an alternative fuel, Liquefied Natural Gas, on the environment and the maintenance of ship machinery. It employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to ascertain the impact of HFO consumption and natural gas consumption on the CO2 emission rate. It also reviews the works that have been done on the impact of alternative fuels on ship maintenance, the effect of HFO on the environment, and the maintenance cost periodicity of vessels. The result of the model shows that an increase in the consumption of HFO increases the emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases more than when natural gas is used. Also, an increased HFO consumption increases the CO2 emission of both the current year and the next year as per the lags, whereas an increased LNG consumption reduces the CO2 emission of the current year and decreases the CO2 emission of the preceding year. The reviewed works indicate that the use of alternative fuels reduce the maintenance cost and the maintenance periodicity of a vessel. It also shows that the use of HFO affects the environment negatively.
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