Synchronicity of Macro Economic Variables among ASEAN Plus Three Countries

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Channarong Chaiphat


                This research aimed at analyzing synchronicity of macroeconomic variables among five  ASEAN  countries comprising Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and the other three countries comprising Japan, China and South Korea by using time-series secondary data from 1980-2010, totaling 31 years. Data were collected from International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank and analyzed by Pearson Correlation Coefficient.
                The result reveals that variables which had synchronicity among the ASEAN Plus three countries consisted of degrees of openness, real GDP growth, inflation rate, and the change of local currency per USD, while the variable which has low synchronicity was real interest rate. Also, synchronicity of macroeconomic variables of each country was found at a moderate level except Philippines which had low synchronicity. In addition , ASEAN and ASEAN plus three countries had similar synchronicity of macroeconomic variables.  Therefore, ASEAN should place an importance on the unity of country members and have a mutual economic management mechanism in order to develop an economic integration for common currency area in the future.

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