The Influence of the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Industry-Specific Factors, and Financial Factors on the Total Return Indices of Electronic Components Industry in the Stock Exchanges of Thailand, Taiwan, and the United States.

Main Article Content

Alisa Rattirom
Massaporn Cheuathonghua

Abstract

This Research Article had aims to investigate the influence of the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), industry-specific factors, and financial factors on the Total Return Index of the electronic components sector in the stock markets of Thailand, Taiwan, and the United States. The study utilizes monthly time-series secondary data covering the period from June 2011 to September 2025, totaling 172 months and uses Multiple Linear Regression with Newey-West standard errors in the analysis. The statistically significant findings are as follows: (1) The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index exhibits a negative relationship with the Total Return Index of the electronic components sector in Taiwan and the United States. (2) Global semiconductor sales show a negative relationship with the Total Return Index of Taiwan's electronic components sector. (3) The Producer Price Index for the semiconductor industry demonstrates a positive relationship with the Total Return Index of Thailand's electronic components sector. (4) The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index has a positive relationship with the Total Return Index of Thailand's electronic components sector; the Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) shows a positive relationship with the Total Return Index of Taiwan's electronic components sector whereas the NASDAQ Composite Index exhibits a negative relationship with the Total Return Index of the US electronic components sector. (5) The Volatility Index demonstrates a positive relationship with the Total Return Index of the electronic components sector in Taiwan and the United States. (6) The US Dollar Index shows a negative relationship with the Total Return Index of Thailand's electronic components sector, but a positive relationship with those of Taiwan and the United States.

Article Details

Section
Research Articles

References

ตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทย. (2566). SET Index และหลักเกณฑ์การคำนวณดัชนี. สืบค้นจาก https://www.set.or.th

ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย. (2567). รายงานแนวโน้มเศรษฐกิจและอุตสาหกรรมชิ้นส่วนอิเล็กทรอนิกส์. กรุงเทพฯ: ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย.

ปารดี โพธิ์ทิพย์ และ ศรัสสรรค์ สุขเจริญสิน. (2563). ความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยกับตลาดหุ้นในกลุ่มประเทศอาเซียน. วารสารบริหารธุรกิจและสังคมศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยรามคำแหง, 3(1), 74-85.

ผาณิตา ยศพล และ มรรษภร เชื้อทองฮัว. (2566). อิทธิพลของดัชนีความผันผวน ดัชนีความยั่งยืนดาวโจนส์ และปัจจัยทางเศรษฐกิจมหภาคที่มีต่อดัชนีหลักทรัพย์หุ้นยั่งยืนของตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทย และ Hang Seng Corporate Sustainability Index. Procedia of Multidisciplinary Research, 1(5), บทความที่ 26.

พงศธร สมบุญ. (2561). เศรษฐมิติเบื้องต้นสำหรับการวิเคราะห์ข้อมูลทางการเงิน. กรุงเทพฯ: โรงพิมพ์มหาวิทยาลัยธรรมศาสตร์.

สำนักงานคณะกรรมการส่งเสริมการลงทุน. (2567). สถิติการขอรับการส่งเสริมการลงทุนในอุตสาหกรรมอิเล็กทรอนิกส์. กรุงเทพฯ: สำนักงานคณะกรรมการส่งเสริมการลงทุน.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Saha, S. (2016). Asymmetry cointegration between the value of the dollar and sectoral stock indices in the U.S. International Review of Economics & Finance, 46, 78–86.

Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. (1995). Time-varying world market integration. The Journal of Finance, 50(2), 403-444.

Benigno, G., di Giovanni, J., Groen, J. J. & Noble, A. I. (2023). The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: September 2023 Update. New York, NY: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Bodie, Z., Kane, A. & Marcus, A. J. (2021). Investments (12th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.

Boschheidgen, R. (2022). Financial impacts of the semiconductor shortage on original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) (Master’s thesis). Nova School of Business & Economics.

Brooks, C. (2019). Introductory Econometrics for Finance (4th ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Byrne, D. M., Oliner, S. D. & Sichel, D. E. (2017). How fast are semiconductor prices falling? (Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-005). Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Chiang, S. M. (2012). The relationships between implied volatility indexes and spot indexes. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 57, 231–235.

Ding, L., Huang, Y. & Pu, X. (2014). Volatility linkage across global equity markets. Global Finance Journal, 25(2), 71–89.

Elsayed, A. H., Nasreen, S. & Tiwari, A. K. (2020). Time-varying co-movements between energy market and global financial markets: Implication for portfolio diversification and hedging strategies. Energy Economics, 90, 104847. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104847

Eun, C. S. & Shim, S. (1989). International transmission of stock market movements. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24(2), 241–256.

Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.

Galbraith, J. W. & Zernov, S. (2006). Extreme Dependence in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 Composite Indexes. Montreal: McGill University, Department of Economics.

Gozgor, G., Khalfaoui, R. & Yarovaya, L. (2023). Global supply chain pressure and commodity markets: Evidence from multiple wavelet and quantile connectedness analyses. Finance Research Letters, 54, 103791. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103791

Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.

Huang, C. H. & Ho, L. C. (2008). The relationship between the bio-energy concept stocks in Taiwan and the international stock markets. Corporate Ownership & Control, 5(4-5), 437–443.

Hung, J. H., Lee, M. C. & Liu, H. C. (2008). International stock market integration and spillover effects: Evidence from Taiwan and major global markets. Applied Financial Economics, 18(9), 767–775.

İlalan, D. & Pirgaip, B. (2019). The impact of US Dollar Index on emerging stock markets: A simultaneous Granger causality and rolling correlation analysis. In R. Biswas Michaelides (Ed.), Essays in Financial Economics (Vol. 35, pp. 145–154). Bingley: Emerald Publishing.

Jensen, M. C. (1978). Some Anomalous Evidence Regarding Market Efficiency. Journal of Financial Economics, 6(2-3), 95-101.

Kose, M. A., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K. & Wei, S. J. (2009). Financial globalization: A reappraisal. IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), 8-62.

Liu, Z. & Zeng, L. (2025). G7 stock markets under global trade pressure: A dynamic view. Finance Research Letters, 86, 108472.

Mankiw, N. G. (2021). Principles of Microeconomics (9th ed.). Boston, MA: Cengage Learning.

NASDAQ. (2023). NASDAQ Composite Index methodology. Retrieved from https://www.nasdaq.com

Phan, T. (2013). Innovation measurement: A decision framework to determine innovation performance (Master’s thesis). Portland State University, United States.

Ramani, V., Ghosh, D. & Sodhi, M. S. (2022). Understanding systemic disruption from the Covid-19-induced semiconductor shortage for the auto industry. Omega, 113, 102720.

Riaz, A., Ullah, A. & Muhammad, B. (2025). The impact of global supply chain pressure on the stock market: A sectoral view. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 12(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-04634-0

Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.

Stiglitz, J. E. & Walsh, C. E. (2006). Economics (4th ed.). New York, NY: W. W. Norton & Company.

Taiwan Stock Exchange. (2023). TAIEX – Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index methodology. Retrieved from https://www.twse.com.tw

Whaley, R. E. (2000). The Investor Fear Gauge. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.

World Semiconductor Trade Statistics. (2024). WSTS Semiconductor Market Forecast Spring 2024. Retrieved from https://www.wsts.org

Yu, F. (2025). Dynamic interaction between NASDAQ Composite Index and Korean Composite Index. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, 145, 66–72.

Translated Thai References

Bank of Thailand. (2024). Report on Economic Trends and the Electronics Components Industry. Bangkok: Bank of Thailand.

Office of the Board of Investment. (2024). Statistics on Investment Promotion Applications in the Electronics Industry. Bangkok: Office of the Board of Investment.

Phothip, P. & Sukcharoensin, S. (2020). The Relationship between the Stock Exchange of Thailand and Stock Markets in ASEAN Countries. Journal of Business Administration and Social Sciences Ramkhamhaeng University, 3(1), 74-85.

Somboon, P. (2018). Introduction to Econometrics for Financial Data Analysis. Bangkok: Thammasat University Press.

Stock Exchange of Thailand. (2023). SET Index and Index Calculation Methodology. Retrieved from https://www.set.or.th

Yosapon, P. & Chuathonghua, M. (2023). The Influence of Volatility Index, Dow Jones Sustainability Index, and Macroeconomic Factors on the Thailand Sustainability Investment Index and Hang Seng Corporate Sustainability Index. Procedia of Multidisciplinary Research, 1(5), Article 26.