Econometric Model of Thai Para Rubber

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to construct a Thai para rubber econometric model and to investigate the effect of increasing in incomes of Thai para rubber importing countries on the supply and demand of Thai para rubber. Time series data from 1975-1991 were employed in the analysis. On the supply model, the estimations employed the ordinary least squares. The components for demand and price relationships were estimated by using two-stage least squares. The model was used to examine the effect of increases in real gross national products of Thai para rubber importing countries by 10 percent during 1975-1991. The para rubber harvested area, yield per rai, total rubber production would increase by 0.41, 4.34, and 4.76 percent, respectively. The quantities of para rubber exports to Japan, U.S.A., Singapore and China would increase by 4.91, 5.38, 9.38 and 26.99 percent, respectively. The para rubber prices received by Thai farmers and export prices of grade 3 Thai para rubber smoked sheets would increase by 5.82 and 1.57 percent, respectively.