Exchange Rate and Nation’s Export Competitiveness: An Empirical Discourse Analysis

Abstract

The objective of this study is to empirically analyze the discourse on correlations between exchange rate and nation’s export competitiveness, which is another part that has been continuously and extensively reproduced in the Thai society by the authorities from academia, the public and private sectors. The study analyzes the timeseries data of the exchange rate, overall exports, exports of agricultural products, and exports of industrial products by employing advanced statistical analysis, regression, and the Johansen Cointegration Test. Through regression, we find that exchange rate is negatively related to overall exports, exports of agricultural products and exports of industrial products. On the contrary, Johansen Cointegration Test does not demonstrate any long-term relationship between exchange rate and the three variables of export. The claim that the appreciation of domestic currency will negatively affect nation’s export competitiveness, whether in overall, agricultural products or industrial products is not a defect in good faith but another example of the dominance of oriented discourse, which gives way for elites to take advantage as a camouflage in the form of knowledge and truth, while others in the society never suspect nor argue about it.