Sales Forecasting of Herbs New Product By Evolutionary Method

Abstract

The research studying on Proper herbal medicine sales forecasting by evolutionary method. Studying on a new product sales forecasting from Priprueksa community enterprise to guild producing a new product for sell. According to research studying found that attempting to sell in present is 250 times per year. Estimate revenue to comparison index is 100 percent, its represent present revenue. If lower attempting to sell in half, estimate revenue of a new product will be 77.6252 percent. If higher attempting to sell to 50 percent, estimate revenue will be 119.2988 percent and if the product reaches saturation point, it needs 3000 times to reach 149.7873 percent of revenue and attempt selling will be increase as the cycle of a new product. The result of a new product sell forecasting by uses the first product selling data to compose in forecasting for producing. when a new herbal product launched in the market, it will show trend of selling that increase in the first year from 4.78 to 4.84, the second year increase from 5.54 to 5.71 and the third year increase from 6.48 to 6.56. This community enterprise will use this selling forecasting to be producing a new product to the market.