Intelligent Water Quality Forecasting and Monitoring System based on Water Quality Index using Machine Learning and IoT Techniques
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Abstract
This research utilizes Internet of Things (IoT) technology and Machine Learning (ML) to develop a prototype for a smart water quality forecasting and monitoring system. The study focuses on analyzing the Reduced Water Quality Index (rWQI) based on water temperature, pH, and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS). To forecast water quality 1 to 6 hours in advance, the performance of four predictive models was evaluated and compared: Extremely Randomized Trees (ET), Random Forest (RF), Simple Linear Regression (LR), and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). The efficiency of these algorithms was validated using four key evaluation metrics: Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE). The experimental results indicated that the predictive performance of the models varied significantly depending on the forecasting horizon. In the short-term horizon (1–3 hours ahead), the RF model achieved the highest performance, with an R² of 0.566 and an MAE of 5.215 in the first hour. Conversely, for long-term forecasting (4–6 hours ahead), all models exhibited a significant drop in performance (R² < 0), yielding higher prediction errors than the Mean Baseline. This long-term limitation stems from high water quality volatility in real-world environments combined with error accumulation in multi-step ahead forecasting. In conclusion, these findings emphasize that aligning model selection with the specific forecasting horizon is critical for enhancing system efficiency and stability. The developed model demonstrates high accuracy and suitability for short-term early warnings within 3 hours. This knowledge enables operators to plan water quality management with precision and speed, thereby reducing operational costs and the risk of aquatic livestock loss. Furthermore, this system serves as a technological prototype in digital agriculture, elevating conventional water quality monitoring into proactive management through intelligent technology.
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