The Stress Test: Redefining Hegemony and Regional Resilience through an Analysis of U.S. Economic Coercion and the Thailand-Cambodian Conflict

Abstract

This research employs a predictive case study methodology within a constructed hypothetical scenario to analyze the interplay between U.S. trade policy and regional security in Southeast Asia, focusing on the Thailand-Cambodian border conflict. Addressing the theoretical puzzle of how external economic pressure interacts with regional institutional fragility, this paper develops a plausible "what-if" scenario to rigorously stress-test three interlinked systems, i.e., U.S. economic statecraft, regional supply chain resilience, and ASEAN’s diplomatic centrality. Rather than simply exploring influence, the study articulates the structural mechanisms of tariffs as instruments of economic coercion in reshaping conflict resolution and regional alignments. While U.S. economic leverage might compel short-term de-escalation, findings reveal a critical paradox where coercive mechanisms simultaneously expose deep vulnerabilities in the "China Plus One" supply chain model, undermine ASEAN’s diplomatic credibility, and risk accelerating geopolitical realignment in the region. Though limited by the boundaries of the specific scenario parameters rather than empirical historical data, this analysis demonstrates how predictive scenario analysis can reveal structural weaknesses often invisible in retrospective studies. These insights provide a robust conceptual foundation for future empirical study of economic coercion and crisis diplomacy in Southeast Asia.