ตัวแบบพยากรณ์ราคาไข่ไก่ (FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE EGG’S PRICES)

Abstract

          The objective of this study was to compare the egg prices forecasting model by 7 forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, and Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method in order to create the best forecasting model. Time series of monthly egg prices which were gathered from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics during January, 2005 to February, 2018 of 158 observations were divided into 2 datasets. The first dataset had 152 observations from January, 2005 to August, 2017 for constructing the forecasting models. The second dataset had 6 observations from September, 2017 to February, 2018 for comparing accuracy of the forecasts via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. Research findings indicated that for all forecasting methods that had been studied, the most accurate method was simple seasonal exponential smoothing method.