การทำนายอัตราการเกิดโรคระบบทางเดินหายใจจากมลพิษ และความแปรปรวนสภาวะภูมิอากาศในจังหวัดนครราชสีมาด้วยแบบจำลองเชิงสถิติ และการจำลองเหตุการณ์แบบมอลติคาร์โล
The purpose of this research is to study the statistical relationship between respiratory diseases caused by air pollution and climate variability in Nakhon Ratchasima province, this is conducted as a qualitative research by using statistical models and Monte Carlo simulation, which indicates to respiratory diseases. In the case of pneumonia, variables that influence the prediction of the disease are high temperature, low temperature, sulfur dioxide and wind direction with the Adjust R2 rate = 1.00, which lead to the sensitivity of equation. It has been found that the carbon monoxide influences the prediction of pneumonia between 20.74-25.81, that the increase of carbon monoxide revealed, when inhaling this type of gas, improper ventilation causes the spread of respiratory infections such as pneumonia. In the case of influenza, variables that influenced the prediction of the disease are high temperature, low temperature, ozone and wind direction with the Adjust R2 rate=0.23. According to the study of the sensitivity of equation, it has been found that the high temperature influences the prediction of influenza between 29.79-35.93, which the Influenza can be caused by many reasons such as influenza virus. The optimum temperature for its growth is high temperature, the more associated temperature is found, the higher temperature occurs for influenza.
Bangphatanasiri, K. (2007). Global warming with the respiratory world. Thai Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Nursing, 18(1), 2-9. (In Thai)
Cholathat R, (2015). Climate Change and Solutions. Journal of Social Sciences: Srinakharinwirot University, January-December,(2015), 416-431. (In Thai)
Maiman, C. (2012). Clean Production Technology. Academic Journal. Eastern Asia University: Science and Technology, 6(1), 34-39. (In Thai)
Nakhon Ratchasima Provincial Health Office. (2014). Report 504 Public Health Research Institute, Department of Medical Sciences. Bangkok : Pimluk. (InThai)
Nakhon Ratchasima Provincial Health Office. (2014). Report 504, 43 files databases Epidemiology report. Nakhon Ratchasima : Nakhon Ratchasima Provincial Health Office. (In Thai)
Office of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health. (2015). Documents from the Meeting on (Draft) Report of Pollution Situation in Thailand. Bangkok : Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. (In Thai)
Office of Natural Resources and Environment Region 11 Nakhon Ratchasima Province. (2015). Report, Summary of Situation and Air Quality Nakhon Ratchasima Province, Year 2009-2014. Nakhon Ratchasima : Office of Natural Resources and Environment Region 11. (In Thai)
Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning. (2015). Complete Report on the Project to Prepare for and Prevent the Effects of Climate Change that May Have on Ecosystems and Natural Environment that Should be Conserved (Waterfall). (In Thai)
Pollution Control Department. (2012). Pollution Management Plan 2012-2016 (1st ed.). Bangkok : Military Dovition Planning and Evalution Department of Pollution Control Department. (In Thai)
Todar, K. (2017). Streptococcus pneumoniae: Pneumococcal pneumonia. Retrieved January 13, 2017, form http://textbookofbacteriology.net/S.pneumoniae.html
Vejpanich S, (2016). The Relationship between the Distribution of Influenza-like Symptoms and Climate in Each Area of Thailand. Thesis for Master of Science degree in Health Research and Management Program, Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok. (In Thai)
World Health organization. (2003). WHO guidelines for air quality. Face Sheet No. 187. Retrieved June 23, 2009, from http://www.who.int/inffs/en/fact187.html
Copyright (c) 2020 NRRU Community Research Journal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.