การทำนายอัตราการเกิดโรคระบบทางเดินหายใจจากมลพิษ และความแปรปรวนสภาวะภูมิอากาศในจังหวัดนครราชสีมาด้วยแบบจำลองเชิงสถิติ และการจำลองเหตุการณ์แบบมอลติคาร์โล

  • วัชราภรณ์ เชื่อมกลาง คณะวิทยาศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยราชภัฏนครราชสีมา
  • นิรันดร์ คงฤทธิ์ Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University
  • หฤษฎ์สลักษณ์ วิริยะ Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University
Keywords: Respiratory diseases, Air pollution, Correlation, Monte carlo simulation

Abstract

    The purpose of this research is to study the statistical relationship between respiratory diseases caused by air pollution and climate variability in Nakhon Ratchasima province, this is conducted as a qualitative research by using statistical models and Monte Carlo simulation, which indicates to respiratory diseases. In the case of pneumonia, variables that influence the prediction of the disease are high temperature, low temperature, sulfur dioxide and wind direction with the Adjust R2 rate = 1.00, which lead to the sensitivity of equation. It has been found that the carbon monoxide influences the prediction of pneumonia between 20.74-25.81, that the increase of carbon monoxide revealed, when inhaling this type of gas, improper ventilation causes the spread of respiratory infections such as pneumonia. In the case of influenza, variables that influenced the prediction of the disease are high temperature, low temperature, ozone and wind direction with the Adjust R2 rate=0.23. According to the study of the sensitivity of equation, it has been found that the high temperature influences the prediction of influenza between 29.79-35.93, which the Influenza can be caused by many reasons such as influenza virus. The optimum temperature for its growth is high temperature, the more associated temperature is found, the higher temperature occurs for influenza.

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Published
2020-01-01
Section
Research Articles