THE IMPACT OF VOLATILITY OF MAIZE PRICE ON CHICKEN PRODUCTION SUPPLY IN THAILAND
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14456/nrru-rdi.2021.50Keywords:
Maize price, Chicken production, Price fluctuation, Box-Jenkins method, Supply responseAbstract
The objective of this research was to analyze the impact of price volatility of the maize price on chicken production supply in Thailand. The total data set was 240 values, from 1999 to 2018. Multiple and seasonal decomposition were used to study the movement of the maize price. Additionally, the Box-Jenkins method was applied for price forecasting and multiple linear regression equations analyzed the response of chicken production supply in Thailand. The results demonstrated that the maize price tended to increase over time. Moreover, the maize price fluctuated with seasonal, cyclical and irregular components. The appropriate forecasting model for the Box-Jenkins method was ARIMA (2, 2, 2), with an accuracy rate of 96.44% and a MAPE of 3.56. Furthermore, the study found that the production of broiler chickens in the current year had a negative relationship to the maize price in the current year. On the other hand, the domestic consumption of chicken meat in the past year and the export price of fresh chicken in the past year had a positive relationship, with statistical significance at the confidence level of 99 and 95 percent respectively. In addition, if the marketing mechanism of maize and broiler chickens were used together for planning purposes, it would serve as a guideline to reduce the fluctuation of prices and the volume of Thai broiler chicken production for a sustainable industry.
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