ความยืดหยุ่นของอุปสงค์ต่อการท่องเที่ยวของนักท่องเที่ยวชาวไทยจากแบบจำลอง (AIDS TOURISM ELASTICITIES IN THAILAND BY AIDS MODEL)

Abstract

This paper applies the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) to evaluate the role of substitution among Thai’s tourism destinations. There are eight choices of tourism destination for Thai tourists including Domestic, Africa, East Asia, Europe, Middle East, Oceania, South Asia and USA. The demand system of tourism destination choices of Thai tourists was estimated by employing quarterly data during 2008-2016 and applying seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) technique. First, the tourism in all estinations claim as normal goods. Second, the negative elasticities for all destinations were found. Third, the finding is that domestic destination can be substituted for all destinations Finally, the recommendations for tourism expansion are (1) the policy to enhanced the economic expansion is necessary condition to support the increasing in Thai’s demand for tourism, (2) the indirect campaign to reduce tourism price such as tax exemption should be promoted, (3) the supply management policy should be prepared to absorb the substitution of all tourism destinations, and (4) the measure to promote domestic tourism should be targeted.