The Impact of Agribusiness Industry Factors and Macroeconomic Factors on Agribusiness Stock Price Indices in Thailand and Vietnam during El Niño and La Niña Phenomena

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the impact of agricultural industry factors and macroeconomic factors during the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. The independent variables were categorized into two groups: Group 1, agricultural industry factors, which included the fertilizer price index and grain price index; and Group 2, macroeconomic factors, which included crude oil prices, the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SET Index), and the Vietnam Stock Exchange Index (VN Index). A dummy variable was used to represent the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. Secondary data were collected on a monthly basis from December 2009 to February 2025, covering a total of 182 months. The analysis employed a multiple linear regression model. The study found that: (1) In the case of Thailand, factors that significantly influenced the stock price index of the agricultural industry sector included the SET Index, crude oil prices, and the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, all of which showed a positive relationship, while the grain price index exhibited a negative relationship. (2) In the case of Vietnam, macroeconomic factors that affected the agricultural stock price index included the VN Index, which had a positive relationship, while the grain price index and crude oil prices showed a negative relationship. These findings highlight the significant differences in cost structures and sensitivities to economic factors between the agricultural sectors of Thailand and Vietnam. Furthermore, the results underscore the importance of monitoring external factors such as commodity prices and climate phenomena in analyzing the trends of the agricultural stock market in each country.