4 future scenarios of political movement towards social change 4 future scenarios of political movement towards social change

Abstract

Abstract

   This academic article has the objectives (1) to study the development of political movements in Thailand from 1973 to present (2) to model the future scenarios for the next 10 years. During the third context (2006 - present), the study found that Important factors or important elements of the development of political movements must have the main elements that will cause political movements, namely 1. Masses 2. Ideology, crisis conditions 3. Assembly 4. Leadership and 5. Tactics of social movements, which these 5 elements are important factors that cause political movements. In various forms that have been developed since 1973 to the present And the researcher has studied the scenario modeling as a projection of the political movement scene in the future within the next 10 years by studying the development of the political movement that occurred in the past and using futuristic thinking in setting the scenario (Scenario) and laying out the scenario model that will occur in the future of the political movement into 4 scenes: Scene 1 Scene 1 political movement in retro society Scene 2 Political movement in society in the direction of the political movement against injustice Scene 3 Political movement against political ideology and Scene 4 Political movement that emphasizes the participation of the people to the government sector. Each scene will be evaluated to select the factors that influence the scene the most and bring the factors that are important to drive the movement of the political movement. In order to know the impact of political movements that may occur in the future and create social change as well.

keyword : Social Movement; social change; political movement